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The limits to growth UPSC

The limits to growth UPSC

14:54
Table of contents:
  • Background
  • J Forester’s System dynamic concept and World1 & World 2 report
  • The Club of Rome
  • The Limit to Growth




Background

There was/are visible natural resource depletion after industrialization, population explosion, and urbanization.  During 1960 there was counter thinking against the un-intellectual industrialization, urbanization, deforestation, environmental degradation, resource depletion, and population explosion.

J Forester’s System dynamic concept and World1 & World 2 report

In counter thinking, J. Forester was the first who published the book "World dynamics" in 1970 and via this book raised many warnings against industrialization unchecked environmental degradation. He also published "Industrial dynamics" in 1961 and "Urban Dynamics" in 1969.

The Club of Rome:


The club of Rome was formed in 1968 in Rome. To study the common futures of earth and J forester research paper.
In 1972, the club of Rome was framed for the continuation of J. Forester's work. A seminar paper was released called "limit to growth". In this paper, a detailed analysis was done on mankind's sustainability and whether mankind will sustain it in the long run or not. The club of Rome also did a detailed study on Malthus's theory on population and gave a report on world resources and the ability to absorb pollution.

What is the limit to growth?
  • Limit of growth theory says nature had set a limit beyond the limit development cannot possible. 
  • The limit to growth model was developed by Meadows on the basis of the system dynamic principle.
The following are the Model Details:
The basic assumption in this model: 

  • We have limited resources available on earth. 
  • Limited agricultural land 
  • Earth has a limited capacity to consume the pollution 
  • The model also gives the importance of technology & innovation to change productivity. 
  • The model does not give much importance to recycling & pollution control mechanism
 
the limit to growth
the limit to growth

 There are five variables or input used in this model:

  • Population 
  • Pollution 
  • Per capita food availability 
  • Per capita industrial production 
  • Natural resources or non-renewable resources

The output will differ with Changes in these five variables. For example, 

  • if the population is increasing then per capita food availability will decrease. 
  • If industrial production is increasing then pollution will be increasing. 

Five sequences run had been made on the basis of these five variables: 

Run 1: The world with current standard variables:

  • The following outputs are found:
  • Increase in industrialization 
  • Loss of economic system 
  • Increase in capital expenditure
  • Resources scarcity leads to the collapse of the world system.

 Run 2: Doubled natural resources
 Due to the decrease in resources in the first run, in this run resources, are tried to increase through innovation & technology. Outcomes were:

  • Pollution increases because of high industrial production 
  • Death rate increases because of high population growth and a decrease in food availability,
  • Double Resources  were only sufficient for a few years, as a result, the collapse of the world system

Run 3: Assumed unlimited natural resources and pollution control measurement was taken

  • The world system collapses due to food scarcity because agriculture production has a limited capacity produce.
  • Pollution problems still persist 

Run 4: Assumed unlimited natural resources, pollution control, and high food productivity

  • The world system collapsed due to the high pollution level due to the very large number of industries.
  • Collective pollution was very high, as the resulting environment degraded

Run 5. No assumption of unlimited resources & assumed rational growth

  • This run earth was considered an isolated region, due to the isolation generation capacity of resources, foods etc were decreased.
  • As the result, again world system collapses

Importance of Limit to growth:

  • The sustainable development concept was developed 
  • This theory forced people to think about environmental degradation.
Criticism of the limit to growth

  • The population does not increase continuously as the model assumed, pollution decrease with economic growth. 
  • Food security can be ensured with new innovations. 
  • The alternative minerals and resources can be developed through innovation
Try to solve the following questions:
  • Discuss in brief the main thesis in "Limit to Growth"(1972) and also provide a critique of the same. (200 words, 15 marks)

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